Hurricanes@RSMAS

Recent Publications

2017

Bhatia, K. T., D. S. Nolan, A. B. Schumacher, and M. DeMaria, 2017: Improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts with PRIME. Wea. Forecasting, In Press.

Dai, Y., S. J. Majumdar, and D. S. Nolan, 2017: Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones by outflow-jet-interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 1941-1958.

Doyle, J. D., J. Moskaitis, J. Feldmeier, R. Ferek, M. Beaubien, M. Bell, D. Cecil, R. Creasey, P. Duran, R. Elsberry, W. Komaromi, J. Molinari, D. Ryglicki, D. Stern, C. Velden, X. Wang, T. Allen, B. Barrett, P. Black, J. Dunion, K. Emanuel, P. Harr, L. Harrison, E. Hendricks, D. Herndon, W. Jeffries, S. J. Majumdar, J. Moore, Z. Pu, R. Rogers, E. Sanabia, G. Tripoli and D.-L. Zhang, 2017: A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., In Press.

Finocchio, P. M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2017: A statistical perspective on wind profiles and vertical wind shear in tropical cyclone environments of the northern hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 361-378.

Halliwell, G. R., M. Mehari, L. K. Shay, V. H. Kourafalou, H. Kang, H.-S. Kim, J. Dong, and R. Atlas, 2017: OSEE quantitative assessment of rapid-response pre-storm ocean surveys to improve coupled tropical cyclone prediction. J. Geophys. Res., In Press.

McNoldy, B. D., B. Annane, S. J. Majumdar, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, and R. Atlas, 2017: Impact of assimilating CYGNSS data on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts in a regional OSSE framework. Marine Tech. Soc. J., 51, 7-15.

Miyamoto, Y., G. H. Bryan, and R. Rotunno, 2017: An analytical model of maximum potential intensity for tropical cyclones incorporating the effect of ocean mixing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 10pp.

Nolan, D. S., and J. A. Zhang, 2017: Spiral gravity waves radiating from tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3924-3931.

Onderlinde, M. J., and D. S. Nolan, 2017: The tropical cyclone response to changing wind shear using the method of time-varying point-downscaling. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 24pp.

Otkin, J. A., W. E. Lewis, A. J. Lenzen, B. D. McNoldy, and S. J. Majumdar, 2017: Assessing the accuracy of the cloud and water vapor fields in the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using satellite infrared brightness temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 2027-2046.

Parsons, D. B., M. Beland, D. Burridge, P. Bougeault, G. Brunet, J. Caughey, M. Charron, H. C. Davies, A. Diongue Niang, V. Ducrocq, P. Gauthier, T. M. Hamill, P. A. Harr, S. C. Jones, R. H. Langland, S. J. Majumdar, B. N. Mills, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, F. Rabier, J.-L. Redelsperger, R. W. Saunders, M. A. Shapiro, R. Swinbank, I. Szunyogh, C. Thorncroft, A. J. Thorpe, D. Waliser, H. Wernli and Z. Toth, 2017: THORPEX Research and the Science of Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 807-830.

Rodgers, R., S. Aberson, D. Cecil, J. Doyle, J. Morgerman, T. Kimberlain, L. K. Shay, and C. Velden, 2017: Re-writing the tropical record books: The extraordinary intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., In Press.

Shimada, U., K. Aonashi, and Y. Miyamoto, 2017: Tropical cyclone intensity change and axisymmetricity deduced from GSMaP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 1003-1017.

Yoshida, R., Y. Miyamoto, H. Tomita, and Y. Kajikawa, 2017: A numerical experiment for an environmental condition of water vapor for a non-developing disturbance observed in PALAU2010. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 95, 35-47.

2016

Curcic, M., S. S. Chen, and T. M. Ozgokmen, 2016: Hurricane-induced ocean waves and strokes drift and their impacts on surface transport and dispersion in the Gulf of Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2773-2781.

Finocchio, P. M., S. J. Majumdar, D. S. Nolan, and M. Iskandarani, 2016: Idealized tropical cyclone responses to the height and depth of environmental vertical wind shear. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 2155-2175.

Jaimes, B., L. K. Shay, and J. K. Brewster, 2016: Observed air-sea interactions in tropical cyclone Isaac over Loop Current mesoscale eddy features. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 76, 306-324.

Judt, F., and S. S. Chen, 2016: Predictability and dynamics of tropical cyclone rapid intensification deduced from high-resolution stochastic ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 4395-4420.

Majumdar, S. J., 2016: A review of targeted observations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 2287-2303.

McCaskill, C., L. K. Shay, J. K. Brewster, and P. Meyers, 2016: Development and assessment of the Systematically merged Pacific Ocean Regional Temperature and Salinity (SPORTS) climatology for oceanic heat content estimations. J. Atmos Ocean Tech., 33, 2259–2272.

Meyers, P. C., L. K. Shay, J. K. Brewster, and B. Jaimes, 2016: Observed ocean thermal response to Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. J. Geophys. Res., 121, 162-179.

Onderlinde, M. J., and D. S. Nolan, 2016: Tropical cyclone-relative environmental helicity and the pathways to intensification in shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 869-890.

Ortiz-Suslow, D. G., B. K. Haus, S. Mehta, and N. J. M. Laxague, 2016: Sea spray generation in very high winds. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 3975-3995.

Ruf, C., R. Atlas, P. Chang, M. P. Clarizia, J. Garroson, S. Gleason, S. Katzberg, Z. Jelenak, J. Johnson, S. J. Majumdar, A. O’Brien, D. Posselt, A. Ridley, R. Rose and V. Zavorotny, 2015: New ocean winds satellite mission to probe hurricanes and tropical convection. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 385-395.

Trumbo, C. W., L. Peek, M. A. Meyer, H. L. Marlatt, E. Gruntfest, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2016: A cognitive-affective scale for hurricane risk perception. Risk Analysis, 36, 14pp.

2015

Bhatia, K. T., and D. S. Nolan, 2015: Prediction of intensity model error (PRIME) for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1845-1865.

Brennan, M. J., D. Kleist, K. Howard and S. J. Majumdar, 2015: The impact of supplemental dropwindsonde data on the structure and intensity of Tropical Storm Karen (2013) in the NCEP Global Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 30, 683-691.

Colbert, A. J., B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman, 2015: The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1806-1823.

Jaimes, B., and L. K. Shay, 2015: Enhanced wind-driven downwelling flow in warm oceanic eddy features during the intensification of tropical cyclone Isaac (2012): Observations and theory. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 1667-1689.

Jaimes, B., L. K. Shay, and E. W. Uhlhorn, 2015: Enthalpy and momentum fluxes during Hurricane Earl relative to underlying ocean features. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 111-131.

Judt, F., and S. S. Chen, 2015: A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Geopyhs. Res. Lett., 142, 6043-6050.

Komaromi, W. A. and S. J. Majumdar, 2015: Ensemble-based error and predictability metrics associated with tropical cyclogenesis. Part II: Wave-Relative Framework. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 1665-1686.

Moon, Y., and D. S. Nolan, 2015: Spiral rainbands in a numerical simulation of Hurricane Bill (2009). Part I: Structures and comparisons to observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 164-190.

Moon, Y., and D. S. Nolan, 2015: Spiral rainbands in a numerical simulation of Hurricane Bill (2009). Part II: Propagation of inner rainbands. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 191-215.

Potter, H., H. C. Graber, N. J. Williams, C. O. Collins III, R. J. Ramos, and W. M. Drennan, 2015: In-situ measurements of momentum fluxes in typhoons. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 104-118.

Potter, H., C. O. Collins III, W. M. Drennan, and H. C. Graber, 2015: Observations od wind stress direction during Typhoon Chaba (2010). Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9898-9905.

Romeiser, R., H. C. Graber, M. J. Caruso, R. E. Jensen, D. T. Walker, and A. T. Cox, 2015: A new approach to ocean wave parameter estimates from C-band ScanSAR images. IEEE Trans. Geosci. and Remote Sensing, 53, 1320-1345.

Stern, D. P., J. L. Vigh, D. S. Nolan, and F. Zhang, 2015: Revisiting the relationship between eyewall contraction and intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 1283-1306.

Wu, T.-C., C. S. Velden, S. J. Majumdar, H. Liu, and J. L. Anderson, 2015: Understanding the influence of assimilating subsets of enhanced atmospheric motion vectors on numerical analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 2506-2531.

2014

Collins, C. O., B. Lund, R. Ramos, W. M. Drennan, and H. C. Graber, 2014: Wave measurement inter-comparison and platform evaluation during the ITOP (2010) experiment. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 2309-2329, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00149.1.

D'Asaro, E. A., P. G. Black, L. R. Centurioni, Y.-T. Chang, S. S. Chen, R. Foster, H. C. Graber, P. Harr, V. Hormann, R.-C. Lien, I.-I. Lin, T. B. Sanford, T.-Y. Tang, and C.-C. Wu, 2014: Impact of typhoons on the ocean in the Pacific: ITOP. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1405–1418, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00104.1.

Drennan, W. M., H. C. Graber, C. O. Collins, A. Herrera, H. Potter, R. J. Ramos, and N. J. Williams, 2014: EASI: An air-sea interaction buoy for high winds. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 31, 1397-1409, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00201.1.

Komaromi, W. A., and S. J. Majumdar, 2014: Ensemble-based error and predictability metrics associated with tropical cyclogenesis. Part I: Basin-wide perspective. Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2879-2898, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00370.1.

Lee, C., and S. Chen, 2014: Stable boundary layer and its impact on tropical cyclone structure in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1927-1944, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00122.1.

Majumdar, S. J., and R. D. Torn, 2014: Probabilistic verification of global and mesoscale ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 1181-1198.

Meyer, R., E. J. Baker, K. Broad, J. Czajkowski, and B. Orlove, 2014: The dynamics of hurricane risk perception: Real-time evidence from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1389-1404, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00218.1.

Meyers, P. C., L. K. Shay, and J. K. Brewster, 2014: Development and analysis of the systematically merged Atlantic regional temperature and salinity climatology for ocean heat content estimates. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 31, 131-149.

Nolan, D. S., J. A. Zhang, and E. W. Uhlhorn, 2014: On the limits of estimating the maximum wind speeds in hurricanes. Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 2814-2837, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00337.1.

Onderlinde, M. J., and D. S. Nolan, 2014: Environmental helicity and its effects on development and intensification of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4308-4320, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0085.1.

Potter, H., C. O. Collins III, R. J. Ramos, N. J. Williams, W. M. Drennan, H. C. Graber, 2014: In-situ measurements of momentum fluxes in typhoons. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 104–118, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0025.1.

Prive, N. C., Y. Xie, S. Koch, R. Atlas, S. J. Majumdar and R. N. Hoffman, 2014: An observing system simulation experiment for the Unmanned Aircraft System data impact on tropical cyclone track forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4357-4363.

Stern, D. P., J. R. Brisbois, and D. S. Nolan, 2014: An expanded dataset of hurricane eyewall sizes and slopes. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2747-2762, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0302.1.

Wu, T.-C., H. Liu, S. J. Majumdar, C. S. Velden, and J. L. Anderson, 2014: Influence of assimilating satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity. Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 49-71, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00023.1.

2013

Bhatia, K. T., and D. S. Nolan, 2013: Relating the skill of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to the synoptic environment. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 961-980, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-12-00110.1

Colbert, A. J., B. J. Soden, G. A. Vecchi, and B. P. Kirtman, 2013: The impact of anthropogenic climate change on North American tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 26, 4088-4095, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00342.1

DeVries, L., S. J. Majumdar, and D. A. Paley, 2013: Observationally-based optimization of coordinated sampling trajectories for recursive estimation of a strong, spatially varying flowfield. J. Intelligent and Robotic Systems, 67, 527-544.

Hoover, B. T., C. S. Velden, and S. J. Majumdar, 2013: Physical mechanisms underlying selected adaptive sampling techniques for tropical cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 4008-4027, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00269.1.

Kerns, B. W., and S. S. Chen, 2013: Cloud clusters and tropical cyclongenesis: Developing and non-developing systems and their large-scale environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 192-210, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00239.1.

Komaromi, W. A., 2013: An investigation of composite dropsonde profiles for developing and nondeveloping tropical waves during the 2010 PREDICT field campaign. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 542-558, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-052.1.

Majumdar, S. J., M. J. Brennan, and K. Howard, 2013: The impact of dropwindsonde and supplemental rawindsonde observations on track forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011). Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1385-1403, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00018.1.

Meyer, R., K. Broad, B. Orlove, and N. Petrovic, 2013: Dynamic simulation as an approach to understanding hurricane risk response: Insights from the Stormview Lab. Risk Analysis, 33, 1532-1552.

Nolan, D. S., R. Atlas, K. T. Bhatia, and L. R. Bucci, 2013: Development and validation of a hurricane nature run using the Joint OSSE Nature Run and the WRF model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 24pp., doi: 10.1002/jame.20031.

Rappin, E. D., D. S. Nolan, and S. J Majumdar, 2013: A highly configurable vortex initialization method for tropical cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 3556-3575, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00266.1.

Solis, D., L. Perruso, J. del Corral, B. Stoffle, and D. Letson, 2013: Measuring the initial economic effects of hurricanes on commercial fish production: The U.S. Gulf of Mexico grouper (Serranidae) fishery. Natural Hazards, 66, 271-289.

Uhlhorn, E., and L. K. Shay, 2013 Loop Current mixed layer energy response to Hurricane Lili (2002) Part II: Idealized numerical simulations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 1173-1192, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-12-0203.1.

Williams, G. J., R. K. Taft, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2013: Shock-like structures in the tropical cyclone boundary layer. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 16pp., doi: 10.1002/jame.20028.


2012

Braun, S. A., J. A. Sippel, D. S. Nolan, 2012: The impact of dry midlevel air on hurricane intensity in idealized simulations with no mean flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 236-257, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-10-05007.1.

Colbert, A. J., and B. J. Soden, 2012: Climatological variations in North Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate, 25, 657-673, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00034.1.

Donelan, M. A., M. Curcic, S. S. Chen, and A. K. Magnusson, 2012: Modeling waves and wind stress, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C00J23, doi:10.1029/2011JC007787.

Hendricks, E. A., B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2012: Observed inner-core structural variability in Hurricane Dolly (2008). Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 4066-4077, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00018.1.

Kelly, D. L., D. Letson, F. Nelson, D. S. Nolan and D. Solís, 2012: Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach. J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 81, 644-663.

Lee, C.-Y., and S. S. Chen, 2012: Symmetric and asymmetric structures of hurricane boundary layer in coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models and observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3576-3594, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-046.1.

Montgomery, M. T., C. A. Davis, T. Dunkerton, Z. Wang, C. S. Velden, R. D. Torn, S. J. Majumdar, F. Zhang, R. Smith, L. Bosart, M. Bell, J. Haase, and M. Boothe, 2012: The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New analysis tools and some first results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 153-172, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00046.1

Musgrave, K. D., R. K. Taft, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2012: Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, M08001, doi:10.1029/2011MS000104.

Nolan, D. S., and M. G. McGauley, 2012: Tropical cyclogenesis in wind shear: Climatological relationships and physical processes. To appear in Cyclones: Formation, Triggers, and Control. Kazuyoshi Oouchi and Hironori Fudeyasu, eds., Nova Science Publishers, Happauge, New York.

Rozoff, C. M., D. S. Nolan, J. P. Kossin, F. Zhang, and J. Fang, 2012: The roles of an expanding wind field and inertial stability in tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2621-2643, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0326.1.

Stern, D. P., and D. S. Nolan, 2012: On the height of the warm core in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 1657-1680, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-010.1.

Uhlhorn, E., and D. S. Nolan, 2012: Observational undersampling tropical cyclones and implications for estimated intensity. Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 825-840, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00073.1

Uhlhorn, E., and L. K. Shay, 2012: Loop Current mixed layer response to Hurricane Lili (2002) Part I: Observations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 42, 400-419.

Zhang, J. A., and W. M. Drennan, 2012: An observational study of vertical eddy diffusivity in the hurricane boundary layer. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3223-3236, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0348.1.


2011

Aberson, S. D., S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Reynolds and B. J. Etherton, 2011: An observing system experiment for tropical cyclone targeting techniques using the Global Forecast System. Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 895-907.

Brennan, M. J. and S. J. Majumdar, 2011: An examination of model track forecast errors for Hurricane Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 848-867.

Halliwell, G., L. K. Shay, J. K. Brewster, and W. J. Teague, Evaluation and sensitivity analysis to an ocean model to hurricane Ivan. Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 921-945.

Jaimes, B., L. K. Shay, and G. Halliwell Jr., The response of quasi-geostrophic oceanic vortices to tropical cyclone forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 1965–1985.

Komaromi, W. A., S. J. Majumdar and E. D. Rappin, 2011: Diagnosing initial condition sensitivity of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008). Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3224-3242.

Lee, S. K., and Coauthors, 2011: What caused the significant increase in Atlantic Ocean heat content since the mid-20th century? Geophysical Res. Lett., 38.

Majumdar, S. J., S.-G. Chen, and C.-C. Wu, 2011: Characteristics of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling guidance for tropical cyclones. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 503-520.

Majumdar, S. J., S. D. Aberson, C. H. Bishop, C. Cardinali, J. Caughey, A. Doerenbecher, P. Gauthier, R. Gelaro, T. M. Hamill, R. H. Langland, A. C. Lorenc, T. Nakazawa, F. Rabier, C. A. Reynolds, R. Saunders, Y. Song, Z. Toth, C. Velden, M. Weissmann and C.-C. Wu, 2011: Targeted Observations for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction: An Overview. World Weather Research Programme, THORPEX Publication No. 15, 37 pp.

McGauley, M. G., and D. S. Nolan, 2011: Measuring environmental favorability for tropical cyclogenesis by statistical analysis of threshold parameters. J. Climate, 24, 5968-5997.

Nolan, D. S., 2011: Evaluating environmental favorableness for tropical cyclone development with the method of point downscaling. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, Art. M08001, 28 pp.

Santorelli, A., R. T. Pinker, A. Bentamy, K. B. Katsaros, W. M. Drennan, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, J. A. Carton, 2011: Differences between two estimates of air-sea turbulent heat fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 116, C09028, doi:10.1029/2010JC006927.

Stern, D. P., and D. S. Nolan, 2011: On the vertical decay rate of the maximum tangential winds in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2073-2094.

Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical cyclone-like vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework. J. Atmos Sci., 68, 2273-2291.


2010

Jaimes, B., and L. K. Shay, 2010: Near-inertial wave wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita over mesoscale oceanic eddies. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 1320-1337. DOI:10.1175/2010JPO4309.1.

Judt, F., and S. S. Chen, 2010: Convectively generated potential vorticity in rainbands and formation of the secondary eyewall in Hurricane Rita of 2005. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3581-3599.

Majumdar, S. J. and P. M. Finocchio, 2010: On the ability of global Ensemble Prediction Systems to predict tropical cyclone track probabilities. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 659-680.

Moon, Y., D. S. Nolan, and M. Iskandarani, 2010: On the use of two-dimensional flow to study secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3765-3773.

Moon, Y., and D. S. Nolan, 2010: The dynamic response of the hurricane wind field to spiral rainband heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1779-1805.

Moon, Y., and D. S. Nolan, 2010: Do gravity waves transport angular momentum away from hurricanes? J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 117-135.

Rappaport, E. N., J. L. Franklin, M. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, L. K. Shay, and E. J. Gibney. Tropical cyclone intensity change before U. S. Gulf coast landfall. Wea. and Forecast, 25, 1380-1396.

Rappin, E. D., D. S. Nolan, and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: Thermodynamic control of tropical cyclogenesis in environments of radiative-convective equilibrium with shear. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1954-1971.

Shay, L. K., and J. K. Brewster. Eastern Pacific oceanic heat content estimation for hurricane intensity forecasting. Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 2110-2131.

Solis, D., and D. Letson, 2010: An empirical evaluation of the determinants of household hurricane evacuation choice. J. Dev. Agric. Econ., 2, 188-196.

Yamaguchi, M. and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 3634-3655.

Yeh, S. W., S. K. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J. H. Kim, M. H. Kwon, and C. H. Kim, 2010: Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 106, 179-189.